We determined the cumulative survival rates, in arthroplasty of the knee, of three designs of tibial component, using a change of position on standard radiographs or revision for aseptic loosening as criteria of failure. The average migration of each of the three designs in the first postoperative year is known from roentgen stereophotogrammetric analysis reported by other authors. The ranking order of the components as judged by cumulative survival is the same as that determined by early migration. This finding supports the view that the measurement of early migration can predict late aseptic loosening and therefore that such measurements are clinically of value.